Political Campaign Research

The first order of business in successful campaign research is a realistic assessment of the political landscape – the jurisdiction/district, opponents, voters, community organizations, social clubs, businesses, local, regional and national political parties/members and other non-governmental organizations.

The Campaign Research Team needs to be reliable, well informed and ready to dive into any topic or issue head on. Depending on the size of your team you will want to delegate certain specific topics to individuals. Does someone on the team have some knowledge regarding locals unions or businesses? Have them reach out to their contacts to build a full, true picture of the jurisdiction's situation. In larger jurisdictions there may be polling firms who have demographic data which would be invaluable in understanding the make up of the district and in creating a targeted communications strategy.

Time management is a critical element of research. There is always more to know however having workable information before a debate, for instance, is critically important. Have either the candidate, manager or research administrator come up with a schedule which the team can use to set benchmarks to achieve objectives and maintain a reporting structure for critical information.

There are four key areas to focus research on before a campaign begins: The operating environment (the jurisdiction, its political battlegrounds, topography, etc), issues, voter makeup and fundraising.

The Operating Environment: Your Political Battleground

Questions pertaining to the lay of the land in the jurisdiction to consider and  research extensively before a campaign begins:

-        What has changed since the last election?

-        What type of election and what are the rules?

-        What are the filing deadlines?

-        What are the regulations surrounding campaign finance?

-        What are your candidates strengths and weakness compared to their potential opponents?

-        What is the law regarding access to media and promotional material in the jurisdiction?

-        What are the rules regarding campaigning on Election Day or near polling stations?

-        What is the economic situation in the jurisdiction? What function does each level of government have responsibility over?

-        What is the district? (boundaries, topography, environmental factors, demographics, population change, transportation system, etc)

-        What polls are conducted in the region: what do they show about voting preferences and attitudes?

Another pivotal task for the research team to conduct on the battleground is opposition research – exposing weaknesses and finding the chinks in the armour of an opposing campaign.  Essentially the team will be vetting your opponent:

-        Public votes made by opposition and/or incumbent

-        Statements made by opposition

-        associations of opposition

-        background checks against the opponent – criminal activity or civil litigation? How would these affect their campaign? How will it appear to voters?

Issues:

-        Are there specific objectives the candidate wants to achieve, do they resonate with the population?

-        What issues are important to the voters in the jurisdiction? Are there any recent polls?

-        What community organizations are active in the jurisdiction? Do they have a legislative agenda? When and where do they meet?

-        Are there national, regional or local issues which are top of mind for the electorate? What type of position can the campaign take on these issues that are credible, responsible, and where appropriate conciliatory?

Voters:

-        Does the jurisdiction possess a master list of all eligible voters, is it reliable and who has access to it?

-        Where do voters get their information? (ownership of local media outlets, political reporters, news programs, news deadlines, availability of advertising, media attitude of the campaign, election, incumbents and opposition)

-        What have been the topics of editorials and letters to the editor in local print or online? Is there a pattern or consensus around certain topics?

-        What is the demographic make up of neighbourhoods within the jurisdiction: Density, income, religion, proximity to key civic centres (educational, industrial, government, spiritual)

-        Who are your supporters? Who are your opponents? Who are the swing voters? Leaning towards you or against? Who is a possible audience for persuasion?

Fundraising:

-        Who are the active business associations or chamber of commerce groups in the jurisdiction? When do they meet and when can the candidate address them?

-        Methods and Best Practices: what are the preferred types of fundraising in the jurisdiction? Which are the most effective? Are certain methods prohibited in the jurisdiction?

-        Does the candidate appeal to certain income groups? What level of donation is an appropriate amount to appeal from donors?

-        Who are your possible donors? Who are your opponents? Are your opponents donors open for persuasion?

Consultants & Polling Firms – value for research.

Ways to obtain information: consultants, public polling and focus groups. For smaller campaigns these may not be a worthwhile investment as it can be expense to run a scientific poll and effective focus groups can be prohibitive. For smaller campaigns a diligent consultant can make a huge difference. They can have the experience of knowing the political players and the opinions and attitudes of the voters in the region. For larger campaigns public polling can be essential. A more in-depth discussion of polling research will follow in a later blog post.

Campaign Finance

Important questions to ask which can vary depending on jurisdiction and level of governance:
- What requirements are there for reporting contributions and expenses?
- What is the campaign period?
- Are there periods when records must be retained before they can be destroyed?
- Are there contribution and expense limits?
- What are the finance filing deadlines?
- Are there any other restrictions or barriers to financing the campaign (publicly funded elections)


Always be mindful of the rule of finite resources and to maximize your return on investment for your resources.

Campaign resources; whether people, money or time, are always under pressure and in demand from all aspects of a campaign. Managing these resources as standalone or in combination for fundraising is vital. The trick is to select the best possible combination of all three resources. You want to make the best use of resources to get the largest impact and donations. Time spent using your candidate or volunteers going door to door is time not spent calling potential donors. It is important to budget all three resources (people, time, money) wisely, effectively and efficiently to get the biggest return.


Budgeting:
There is a cost for everything you do in a campaign, if not financial than timely. Once you have defined your detailed communications plan there will be variable costs: printed materials for door to door pamphlets, mailings and e-mail blasts, signs, web-hosting, event hosting, canvassing transportation, merchandise, etc. and you can begin to define your communications costs.  Add on your fixed costs: rent, staff, phones, utilities, computers, cameras, office furnishings, etc. Your budget should be realistic and not a wish list. You may want to prepare more than one; a high, medium and low budget to take into consideration the scenario where fundraising does not go as well as planned or exceeds expectations.

As many have said “Cash is King” and cash flow determines if you can stay in the game. As you spend money you should also think about how to bring more in as part of the budgeting process. After organizing and costing each task and their monetary requirements create a timeline in a calendar to determine when money will be required. This way you can set your fundraising requirements month by month, week by week or day by day.

Keeping a campaign inventory is essential, especially if this is not your first campaign. Some jurisdictions will count previous campaign inventory as a budgeted expense however others may allow them as 0 dollar items. When in doubt always consult the local election guidelines.

Fundraising:
Again “Cash is King” and cash flow determines if you are in the race. The best fundraiser in any campaign is the candidate, but the candidate also goes by the rule of infinite resources, therefore use their time wisely. Try to always have the candidate present for large donation requests and at meet and greet functions.

Campaigns should target donors in the same way they target voters, determine your best chance. Keep in mind that unlike voters who can only vote once or have to live in the constituency, they can give as many times as they want (some jurisdiction may have contribution limits for a particular office). If you are not an incumbent with a previously established donor base start collecting names of potential contributors from the following:
- Family
- Personal friends
- Professional colleagues
- Volunteers
- Local Businesses
- Community leaders
- Groups or organizations that could benefit or have interests in the jurisdiction
- Neighbourhood organizations
- Business groups/organizations/social networks
- Unions
- People who share your ideological view
- People who want to see another candidate defeated

Remember if they can’t give money they may be able to give time, resources or materials.

It is important to determine how best to approach a potential donor, should it be a senior member of the campaign team, a volunteer call centre operator or the candidate directly. It is important to remember/stress that it is not begging but asking the donor for an investment in the future.

There are many different ways to ask, direct mail, over the phone, face to face, at parties or events
etc.Each has best practices to be followed to get maximum results (a more in-depth review in will appear later on the blog).

Remember to ask at every opportunity!

Compliance:
The issue of compliance varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and is different at each level of government. When in doubt always consult the local election laws, having an accountant or lawyer on hand to determine if a particular expense or donation is eligible can be extremely helpful, as any rule breaking will not only reflect poorly on the campaign and the candidates judgement but could also have disastrous legal ramifications such as jail time, fines, removal from office and being barred from running again. The following are some fundamental questions to ask yourself when considering campaign compliance:

- Are there accounting requirements for the campaign?
- Is there a reporting system for contributions?
- Is there a method to report ineligible contributions?
- Are fundraising events happening outside of a campaign period? Are these contributions eligible in the jurisdiction?
- Are your records in an easy to understand and presentable form to submit to an auditors scrutiny?

For a free copy of a budget excel spreadsheet click here

Campaign plan overview

So you have made the decision and commitment to run for office, you have completed a self-analysis and reviewed the political landscape. It’s now time to put together all the components required to have a successful campaign.

 

What should your campaign plan include?


Compliance filing and reporting

• Nomination papers
• Filing fees
• Deadlines
• Other regulatory requirements

Finance

• Tracking expenses and revenue, reporting
• Fundraising – no money no campaign
• Campaign budget

Research

• The district
• The voters
• Past elections
• Political landscape
• Opponents

Campaign strategic/message plan-voter contact plan/Identify the vote and GOTV

• Local issues
• Opponents position on issues
• Identifying the vote
• Door to door –where/when and with whom
• Call centre – volunteer’s vs paid or combination
• Social media
• Direct marketing – targeting by geographic/demographic and history vote data
• Signage
• Press – knowledge of the local media
• Public speaking – local community group events and debates
• Field operations – local community leaders and organizations
• GOTV – elections day is all about your plan and execution of “getting out the vote”

Campaign Staff

• Official agent
• Campaign manager
• Finance manager/treasurer
• Fundraising co-ordinator
• Communications and PR professional
• Advisors
• Field manager – field captains
• Technology/IT manager
• Volunteers – the heartbeat of your campaign

Campaign Management tools required.

• Office location
• Phones/phone bank
• IT info structure – computers/printer/copier
• Financial software
• Voters list database software solution
• Contact management

Compliance filing and reporting:

Each jurisdiction and each level of government has its own legal requirements for candidacy. Review early to make sure all filing dates are met.

Eligibility to run: Residency requirements, age requirements, conflicts – work/leave of absence, any criminal record

Nomination papers, filing fees and date required – in some cases the filling fees are refundable if you meet a certain percent of the vote. Each jurisdiction also has its own rules regarding refunding of fees if withdrawing.

Campaign Finance

You are ultimately responsible for keeping track of all financial activities, depending on the level of your office it may be beyond your time ability to do this. It is important to hire/consult with an auditor or an accountant early in the process to setup a book keeping and accounting system that will meet all your fundraising and expense reporting needs.

Almost all campaigns will require submitting a campaign financial statement at some point in the campaign or after the event. We will further discuss campaign financing and reporting in a further post.

 

Next post – A more in-depth look at campaign finance, reporting and fundraising.

Starting Your Campaign - Step 1

(first in a series on The Campaign Playbook)

You've decided to run for office or you're working for a campaign. Before you jump in headfirst you must consider all the things necessary in being and supporting a great candidate. Ask yourself: Why do you want to be a candidate? What skills, knowledge, values, beliefs and abilities do you bring to the table? What draws you to public service?

Review your profile: Do you have a keen policy mind or are you a more goal oriented fundraiser? Strengths here can define a campaign's success, strategies and limitations. Every detail of your life is going to be under public scrutiny so it counts to be thorough and comprehensive. Start with your resume information, past associations, political activity and interests, medical history,, financial disclosures, and media profile. In short you need to review your entire personal history: cultural, familial, private, public, education, volunteering, community activities and lifestyle. It is important throughout this process to be honest with yourself about your weaknesses, failings and past mistakes. Anything that has remained private and confidential is worth reviewing. Neglecting any information could prove disastrous if discovered by an opposing campaign. Expect anything you fail to dredge up will be fodder for your opponent's campaign strategy. Review all your relationships whether directly with yourself, spouse, family or friends.

Questions to ask yourself: Are there former teachers, advocates, clergy, organizers, planners, facility coordinators, business leaders and community members that are either valuable assets or liabilities? Do you have business network connections or associates who could be helpful in campaign fundraising? What sacrifices are you willing to make in your private life? Do you have investments, holdings or possible gifts that could be perceived as a conflict of interest? What values and attitudes do you hold and do any of these appeal to a particular voter or donor base? Do you have any particular policy interests and are they relevant to the office you are interested in holding? Are you more credible on some issues rather than others? How strong are your public speaking, debating, one-on-one and fundraising pitch skills? What did the last incumbent in office do? Did their policies create division within the community or are citizens satisfied with their approach? What community groups do you belong to and how are they perceived? Have you received media exposure for your work or community activities? Have there been newspaper editorials written about you? Do you have large name recognition in the district or riding? Are online, radio and television ads warranted? Did you previously hold any office? What was your voting record?

Ask similar questions and draw a contrast with your opponent(s): What did the last incumbent do? Are voters looking for a change? Were they voters satisfied with their approach? Scan local and regional newspapers and blogs daily in the jurisdiction: If there are two sides to each story which side is the opponent on? Who benefits from their position (follow the money)? Is it worth considering alternatives? Could the community be better served with a different policy? What are your opponent's policy positions? Where do they fit in the jurisdiction's political landscape? Were they previous party executives, incumbents or independent? Which business and community interests do they support? Are there outstanding issues in the community which need to be addressed or have been delayed? Who are the players: party presidents, riding association members, community leaders, business connections, media professionals, civic leaders, anyone else who could be considered a leader or consensus maker? Who supports your opposition?

These types of questions are critical in laying the groundwork for an effective campaign. In doing diligent research, self-examination and strategy you may discover critical information that may have otherwise been overlooked or otherwise under-appreciated. Get ready for the long road ahead and prepare for victory.

A guide to running and winning elections – the campaign plan book

Running a political campaign, whether you are a first timer or seasoned politician, is a time consuming and exhaustive process that can also be an exhilarating and fulfilling event. I say event because just like any successful event it requires great planning and execution to be successful.

Over the next few weeks we will be publishing a series of excerpts that map out what is required to have a successful campaign, from understanding the political landscape to persuading the voters to go to the voting station and choose you over other parties or candidates.

Some of the topics we will be covering:

• Develop a campaign plan
• Messaging
• Fundraising and finance
• Voter list management and targeting
• Campaign staffing
• Campaign tools
• And much, much more…..

                                         
                                                 Our first in the series will be on: 
                                                      - why become a candidate?
                                                      - self analysis 
                                                      - your competition.

Big Data and Voter Registries – Election Officials

From analyzing the migratory track of the Canada Goose and its effects on the number of bird/plane interactions to the predictive modeling and profiling of consumer purchasing behavior.The use of big data has become prevalent in today’s society. Tracking voters intentions is no different. 

There has been a large increase in the number of data mining/farming firms establishing themselves in the use of big data in the electioneering fields: 270 Strategies Inc., NGP VAN, Goddard Gunster Inc., Elections Impact Group and Campaign Communications Group just to name a few. The application of big data in the election process extends over both the area of campaigning and election administration of voter list management and poll GIS.

Today we are looking at the application of big data in the maintenance and creation of voter registries. We know from statistics, that there is on average over 20% movement in the general population each year. There are numerous methods that jurisdictions use to maintain their voters list. Some jurisdictions require voters to register themselves. Others maintain their own list with the use of data from sources such as vital statistics (birth, death and marriage certificates), DMV records, tax records, postal NCOA (National change of address program), returned mail, assessment records, personal property records, property tax records, correctional institutions, health institutions, new citizenship records, Foreign Affairs(citizens residing outside the country), armed forces,  and the list goes on.  There has even been a sharing of information between multiple levels of jurisdictions, from federal to province/state to municipal levels.

There are numerous companies that have developed software for the management of these lists over different platforms including: SEO, SCYTL, Datafix, KVM*, Dominion Voting and many more. Each with its own strengths and weaknesses.

Summary of countries that maintain a voter registry and some of the methods used to compile the registers **

Links to national population records	Albania, Belgium, Botswana, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Lithuania, Mexico, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Poland, Seychelles, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine
Links to police records of residence	Armenia, Austria, Belarus, Croatia, Czech Republic, Lithuania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Links to applications for government services	Australia, Canada, Cape Verde, Chile, Japan, Panama, Seychelles, Slovakia
Registration by voters at registration offices	Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cape Verde, Chile, Costa Rica, Croatia, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, France, Germany, Guatemala, Honduras, Ireland, Lesotho, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Portugal, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Door-to-door registration campaign	Albania, Australia, Barbados, Belarus, Costa Rica, India, Ireland, Mexico, Pakistan, Panama, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Seychelles, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom
Registration by mail	Australia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom;
Mobile election registrar	Australia, Mozambique, Namibia, Panama, Uganda
Internet registration	Australia, Canada, Denmark

One of the largest issues facing data professionals in the maintenance and use of outside lists to update registries is the non-standardization of data sets across numerous files. Each contributing organization has its own record layout standards based on each organization requirements.  To complicate this job there is a continuous updating of municipal GIS systems to keep up with street name changes for 911 services, new residential development and redefining of polling district due to population movement/increases.

There are a number of tools, both open source and third party licensed options for dealing with standardizing the maintenance of your RDBMS for any platform, whether the platform is Oracle, SQL, DB2, NoSQL or any other. One free service is “Google Refine” that provides an easy way to clean up messy data. Another open source solution you may want to review, that is part of the “big data” craze, is “Hadoop “or “SQOOP” and their third party suppliers, Hive, Flume, Haze etc. If you are not comfortable with or find the open source solutions difficult to use then there are commercial versions of Hadoop including Cloudera with a more user-friendly feel.

With the advances and ever-changing tools available for big data, IT managers have access to data manipulation and analytic tools on their desktop that was only available to larger organizations. What new tools will be available next?

**Source: The Election Process Information Collection, a joint project of the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, United Nations Development Programme, and International Foundation for Election Systems (www.epicproject.org).

Minimum voting age - the debate

Over the last number of months my 17 year old daughter has expressed how much she is looking forward to exercising her franchise* in her first election (she will be 18). As an elections professional it gives me great pride that she is a civic minded individual and has a keen sense of the world around her. I know that at her age she is not alone in her world view and local knowledge/understanding, and is probably just as much, if not more, qualified to make judgements on our political leaders than some older voters.  But at what age would she have been ready to make such a decision?  Our government, and parents, allowed her at the age of 16 to take control of car. If she so desired, and we allowed her, she could have received a hunting permit (with proper instruction and licencing) at the age of 14.

When many modern democracies first established the right to vote the generally accepted minimum voting age was set to 21 or higher.

 In the 1970’s there was a push to drop the voting page to 18 as this was the age at which one could be drafted into war and consume alcohol, why not vote!? And many did.  There were also regions/groups that thought a reduction to the age of 16 is appropriate as they would be affected by decisions of 18 year olds.

In July of 2007 Austria became the first member of the European Union, and the first developed world democracy to adopt the voting age of 16 for most purposes.

On July 26^th, 2007 a New Zealand MP introduced a bill (Civics Education and Voting Age Bill) that was to reduce the voting age to 16 and make civics education part of the compulsory curriculum in schools. (Later dropped as thought it was the wrong timing)

In 2009 a member of the Danish Parliament went as far as to submit an initiative to give children the right to vote from birth with the parents casting their vote until the child had the capacity to decide how to vote – Demeny Voting

In 2013 the city of Takoma Park USA became the first in the US to drop the voting age to 16 for municipal elections and referendums.

Another notable change in voting age was September 2014 when the age for voting in the Scottish Independence referendum was dropped from 18 to 16.

• There is only one known maximum voting age, the Holy See (Vatican) where the Cardinals must be under the age of 80 to elect a Pope.

Arguments for lowering the voting age:

• It will encourage greater civic participation
• Habit of voting becomes well ingrained - as those that vote at a younger age tend to continue to vote as they get older
• Ensure the concerns and issues of  youth are addressed
• Young people are interested in politics – just look at social media!
• We need to involve people of all ages and backgrounds
• Today’s teenagers have more experience of the world than we did, they work and contribute to the economy

Arguments against lowering the voting age:

• One needs more experience of the world
• More likely to be influenced by a parent/teacher and therefore not believed to be independent
• Less informed judgement
• Idealism turns into reality as we age/experience and learn

As pointed out by others, these are the same arguments used in the past against giving women and the working class the right to vote!  “Not intelligent or mature enough”.

A summary look at voting ages by number of constituencies

Voting age table:

Minimum Voting Age	Number of countries/constituencies
16	13
17	7
18	204
19	1
20	2
21	10

*Using the term “exercising one’s franchise” draws more than one similarity to the actual act of physical exercise- the younger you start the more you are likely to continue. There is too much apathy to voting and obesity in our world.